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2nd opinion
Read the forecast

The record

Every forecast, graded in the open.

Numbers frozen at publish, graded when they settle — the wins and the misses. Nothing has resolved yet; this is the scoreboard, ready.

Publish & freeze. Every sim result is timestamped and locked the moment it finishes.
The venue settles. The real world answers YES or NO.
We grade the frozen number. Right/wrong feeds the chip; squared error feeds the Brier. Automatic — never edited.
HOW WE SCORE

Frozen at publish. The number you see graded is the exact probability we published — timestamped and locked the moment the sim finished. It is never re-fitted to the venue price and never edited after the fact.

Graded on resolution. When the venue settles the market YES or NO, we compare it to our frozen call. Right/wrong feeds the ✓ chip; squared error feeds the Brier — 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin-flip.

Every resolved call is listed here and on every public profile — the wins and the misses. If a venue goes quiet we grey the field out.