Live · 2026 midterms
Elections
A second opinion on election numbers: win probabilities built from polls, ratings, and history — every source cited, every miss owned.
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Elections2026 midterms · live nowSportsin trainingMarketscoming soonEvery sourcecited, alwaysMethodsfrozen before events
A second opinion on the numbers everyone quotes.
Mathematical and statistical analysis of collected data — polls, results, prices, play-by-play — with every source cited. One recipe, applied to anything we cover.
Verticals
Where the numbers live
Coming soon
Markets
A second opinion on market numbers: independent statistical reads on the prices and odds moving the tape.
In the pipelineMore to come
Whatever's next
A second opinion on any numbers people quote too quickly. Every new vertical runs the same recipe.
Watching the tapeThe recipe
How we analyze anything
One pipeline, every vertical. Four steps, in plain words — the same math whether the numbers are elections, games, or markets.
- 01
Collect
Pull the data from cited sources — polls, results, prices, play-by-play. No black-box inputs.
- 02
Model the uncertainty
Uncertainty is the whole job. Poll misses move together; honest ranges beat single-point guesses.
- 03
Simulate the futures
Run the world thousands of times. Every simulation is one future that could actually happen.
- 04
Count the outcomes
The share of futures where something wins is its probability. Counting, not guessing.
Proof, not promises
Calibrated on the past. Frozen before the event.
Every model we ship is calibrated on history, frozen before it touches a live event, and graded in the open — the misses published alongside the hits.
See the track record- Calibrated on the past before forecasting anything new
- Methods frozen and pre-registered — no quietly re-tuned blends
- Probabilities graded against what happened — misses published
- Every figure traceable to a cited source
Support
Fuel the math.
Second Opinion is independent analytical work — statistical models, cited sources, published misses. If you want a second opinion on the numbers everyone quotes to keep existing, help pay for the math.
Independent by design
No advertisers, no sponsors, no subscribers to please — just the math and the sources behind it.
Methods stay open
Every model we ship publishes its method, its calibration, and its misses. Donations keep that work free.
Reader-funded from day one
A second opinion only works if it answers to readers. Your support keeps the forecast free for everyone.
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Reader-funded · No paywall · We never sell your data